Global warming is no longer a future menace; it is affecting Indian agriculture today. Rising temperatures, shifting monsoon patterns, and extreme weather are creating real challenges for farmers across the country. This article explains how these changes are impacting crop yields, farmer income, and food security, while highlighting updated figures and credible sources from 2025.
Table of Contents
India’s hottest year on record
The India Meteorological Department reports that the average land surface temperature in 2024 was about 0.65 °C above the 1991–2020 average. High night-time temperatures were especially widespread. Early in 2025, forecasts predicted above-average temperatures in March, a concerning sign for wheat, chickpeas, and rapeseed, given their sensitive flowering stages.
Heatwave disruption across northern India
The 2025 India–Pakistan heat wave, which spanned from April to mid-July, brought temperatures as high as 48 °C in Rajasthan. This extreme heat caused widespread distress, killing hundreds, forcing crop delays, and keeping farm workers off the fields.
Too much or too little rain
In central districts of Haryana, rainfall jumped 37% between 2023 and 2025, leading to waterlogging and severe crop damage in multiple districts.
Punjab, in August 2025, faced devastating floods. More than 61,000 hectares of farmland in over 1,000 villages were submerged, displacing roughly 1.5 million people. This became the state’s worst flood since 1988.
Drought in eastern India
Even as floods inundated parts of India, five districts in Assam were declared drought-affected due to rainfall deficits of around 40% below normal. These contrasting conditions highlight the growing unpredictability regions now face.
Agricultural prices under pressure
Climate shocks are impacting food prices. In 2023 and 2024, vegetable inflation surged up to 37% in July 2023 and even 42% in October 2024, as poor harvests hit supply. The Reserve Bank of India estimates that changes in rainfall and temperature add approximately 1.24 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, to inflation.
Perceptions and direct impacts
A 2024–2025 Yale survey shows that 71% of Indians experienced heatwaves firsthand, 60% faced worsening pests and diseases, and more than half were affected by water shortages or pollution. This highlights that climate risks are being felt, not just forecasted.
Drought threats amid plentiful forecasted rainfall
Despite the IMD forecasting 105% of average monsoon rainfall for 2025, central authorities warned that localized drought-like conditions could still emerge, especially in places like Kerala. Farmers were advised to watch rainfall closely using weather models and apps and to prepare for crop stress accordingly.
Tools and early warning systems are improving
India launched the Bharat Forecasting System in May 2025, a high-resolution, 6 km grid-based weather model that significantly improves short- to medium-range forecasts for farmers. ([turn0search33])
Long-term yield damage from warming
A recent NABARD study finds that a 1% rise in temperature (roughly 0.26 °C) can reduce food grain yields by 6.5% in the long run. This underscores the urgency of investing in adaptive strategies.
Agriculture shows resilience but remains at risk
Despite repeated climate shocks, Indian food grain output has broadly held up. But agricultural gross value addition (GVA) growth has slowed, highlighting mounting structural challenges.
Policy advances in 2025
A major launch in July 2025, the Prime Minister’s Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana, aims to benefit 1.7 crore farmers in 100 underperforming districts through better irrigation, storage, and credit support. Its ₹24,000 crore annual outlay reflects the scale of response needed.
Summary table of key 2025 insights
| Climate Factor | Impact on Agriculture |
|---|---|
| +0.65 °C warming | Yield stress in wheat, rice, horticulture |
| Heatwave to 48 °C | Crop and labour disruptions |
| +37% rainfall in Haryana | Flood-induced crop loss |
| Punjab floods | 61,000 ha flooded, 1.5m displaced |
| Assam drought | ~40% less rain, crop stress |
| Veg inflation spikes | 37–42% in 2023–24 |
| Forecast tech upgrade | Yield stress in wheat, rice, and horticulture |
Conclusion
Global warming is no longer a distant concern; it is shaping the reality of Indian farming today. From scorching temperatures and floods to droughts and price spikes, the impacts are widespread and immediate. Yet farmers and the government are responding with adaptive tools, updated weather systems, and large-scale programmes. The path ahead depends on how quickly we can scale these solutions, deliver them to rural communities, and continue to build climate-ready agriculture systems.
References: Farmonaut, Nabard.org, Agriwelfare.gov.in
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