Discover how caste and class factors drove the NDA to a historic 2025 Bihar Assembly victory, with shifting Dalit support, EBC consolidation, and strong women voter turnout reshaping the state’s political landscape.
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The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections delivered a stunning victory for the National Democratic Alliance, which captured 202 out of 243 seats, marking one of the most decisive mandates in recent state history. This outcome was shaped by a complex mix of caste loyalties, economic interests, and strategic welfare schemes that reshaped voter behaviour across communities. Understanding who voted for whom and why reveals fascinating insights into how Bihar’s political landscape has transformed.
The Changing Caste Equation
Bihar politics has long been defined by caste arithmetic, and 2025 was no exception. However, the traditional formulas underwent significant changes that benefited the NDA while weakening the opposition Mahagathbandhan.
The NDA built a broader caste coalition that extended far beyond its traditional upper caste base. This coalition brought together upper castes, Extremely Backward Classes, non-Yadav Other Backward Classes, and Dalits under one umbrella. The alliance secured approximately 49 percent of the total vote share compared to 38 percent for the Mahagathbandhan.
Upper Caste Consolidation
Upper castes showed strong support for the NDA, particularly through the BJP. The party fielded 49 out of 101 candidates from upper caste communities, including 21 Rajputs, 16 Bhumihars, and 11 Brahmins. This strategy paid off handsomely. Rajput representation in the assembly jumped from 18 seats in 2020 to 32 seats in 2025, while Bhumihar representation increased from 17 to 23 seats. This consolidation reflected a coordinated effort by upper caste voters to support the NDA across constituencies.
The EBC Factor Becomes Decisive
The Extremely Backward Classes, comprising about 36 percent of Bihar’s population, emerged as the kingmakers in this election. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, himself from the Kurmi community, has cultivated this base carefully over two decades through targeted welfare schemes and political representation.
The results speak volumes. Between 65 and 75 EBC candidates won seats, making them the single largest group in the new assembly. Communities like Kurmis, Koeris, Mallah, Teli, and Nai voted heavily for the NDA. Among Kurmi and Koeri voters, an impressive 65.7 percent supported the NDA compared to just 31.9 percent for the Mahagathbandhan. Even the Nishad community, which the opposition tried to attract through VIP leader Mukesh Sahani, gave over 60 percent of their votes to the NDA.
Kurmi representation grew dramatically from 10 seats in 2020 to 25 seats in 2025, while Kushwaha representation increased from 16 to 26 seats. This surge demonstrates how effectively the NDA mobilized these communities.
Dalits Swing to the NDA
One of the most significant shifts in 2025 was the movement of Dalit voters toward the NDA. Scheduled Castes make up about 19.65 percent of Bihar’s population, and the NDA won an unprecedented 34 out of 38 reserved seats.
Exit polls suggested that around 49 percent of Scheduled Caste voters backed the NDA. This represented a decisive swing from previous elections when Dalit votes were more evenly divided. The inclusion of Dalit leaders like Chirag Paswan, whose Lok Janshakti Party rejoined the NDA, and Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha proved crucial.
The NDA’s welfare schemes, particularly those targeting Mahadalits, resonated strongly. Programs like Vikas Mitra ensured government benefits reached Dalit households effectively. Additionally, many Dalit voters perceived the NDA as offering more inclusive governance compared to what they saw as Yadav dominance in the RJD.
The Muslim-Yadav Alliance Shows Cracks
The traditional Muslim-Yadav coalition, which formed the backbone of RJD politics for three decades, showed visible strains in 2025. While this alliance still commands loyalty, it faced challenges from multiple directions.
Muslims comprise 17.7 percent of Bihar’s population, but their political representation fell to a historic low. Only 10 Muslim candidates won seats, the lowest since 1990. In the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region, voters split between the Mahagathbandhan and Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which retained all five of its 2020 seats.
This split reflected growing frustration among Muslims who felt taken for granted by the RJD. Despite forming a substantial voting bloc, the community saw limited representation in the Mahagathbandhan’s ticket distribution and leadership positions. Many Muslims in Seemanchal chose AIMIM as their own representative party rather than supporting Hindu-led alliances, even at the risk of helping the NDA.
Yadavs remained loyal to the RJD, with approximately 76 percent voting for the Mahagathbandhan. However, Yadav representation in the assembly dropped from 61 seats in 2015 to just 28 seats in 2025. This decline illustrates how a narrowly focused caste base cannot compensate for broader social coalition building.
How Class Influenced Voting Patterns
Economic class played an equally important role alongside caste in determining voting behavior. The patterns reveal surprising trends about which income groups supported which alliance.
Poorer districts overwhelmingly favored the NDA. In the bottom five districts by per capita income, including Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, East Champaran, and Nawada, the NDA won 70 percent of seats in 2020. This pattern continued and strengthened in 2025.
In contrast, some middle-income districts like Rohtas, Buxar, Bhojpur, and Aurangabad showed stronger support for the Mahagathbandhan. However, the NDA’s welfare schemes and direct benefit transfers proved more attractive to voters in economically weaker regions.
Bihar’s per capita monthly income stands at less than Rs 6,000. In this context, the Rs 10,000 one-time payment to over one crore women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana represented a significant economic boost. This scheme, distributed just before the elections, had substantial impact among lower-income families.
The BJP has gradually shifted its support base from upper and middle classes to include poor voters. Data shows that 37 percent of poor voters supported the BJP in 2024, compared to 24 percent in 2014. This trend accelerated in Bihar, where the combination of welfare delivery and development messaging resonated strongly with economically disadvantaged groups.
Women Voters Create the Winning Margin
Women played an unprecedented role in deciding the 2025 outcome. For the first time in Bihar’s electoral history, female voter turnout surpassed male turnout. Women recorded 71.6 percent turnout compared to 62.8 percent for men.
This massive mobilization gave the NDA a critical edge. In many districts, including Supaul, Kishanganj, and Madhubani, women voted 10 to 20 percentage points higher than men. In absolute numbers, over 5 lakh more women voted than men.
The Rs 10,000 assistance scheme was only the latest in a long line of women-focused initiatives by Nitish Kumar. Over his 20-year governance period, he introduced bicycles for girl students, 50 percent reservation in panchayats, the Jeevika self-help program, prohibition of alcohol, and enhanced pensions.
Many women who received Rs 10,000 in 2025 were the same girls who got bicycles during Nitish’s first term, improving their school enrollment and life prospects. This generational trust paid enormous dividends at the ballot box. The difference between the NDA’s promise delivered and the Mahagathbandhan’s promise merely stated proved decisive among female voters.
Comparing 2025 to 2020
The shift between the two elections was dramatic. In 2020, the NDA narrowly scraped through with 125 seats, just three above the majority mark. The Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats, making it an extremely close contest.
In 2025, the NDA’s tally jumped to 202 seats, representing an 83 percent strike rate. The Mahagathbandhan collapsed to just 35 seats. This 77-seat gain for the NDA came from multiple factors working together.
The return of Chirag Paswan’s LJP to the NDA fold was crucial. In 2020, LJP contested separately and split NDA votes in 32 seats. In 2025, the reunited alliance avoided vote splitting and benefited from coordinated campaigning.
Caste representation patterns shifted markedly. In 2020, five caste groups including Yadavs, Rajputs, Bhumihars, Muslims, and Koeris accounted for 56 percent of total MLAs. This figure declined to 49 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, Muslim-Yadav MLAs fell from 29.2 percent in 2020 to just 15.2 percent in 2025, while non-Yadav OBC and EBC MLAs surged to nearly 40 percent.
The NDA also achieved greater social diversification. While the Mahagathbandhan derived 69 percent of its MLAs from five dominant caste groups, the NDA drew only 44 percent from these communities, showing a 25-point gap in coalition breadth.
Why Communities Shifted Support
Several factors explain why various groups changed their voting preferences between 2020 and 2025.
Fear of jungle raj played a significant role. The NDA effectively reminded voters of the lawlessness, extortion, and poor governance that characterized RJD rule in the 1990s. This messaging particularly resonated with voters who lived through that era and with younger voters concerned about safety and opportunities.
Development and infrastructure improvements under Nitish Kumar gave voters tangible reasons to support continuity. Roads, electricity, law and order, and welfare schemes created a positive governance narrative. First-time voters and youth appreciated these changes, even while acknowledging unemployment remained a concern.
The perception of stable, inclusive governance attracted diverse caste groups to the NDA. Communities that felt sidelined by the Yadav-centric politics of RJD found space in the broader NDA coalition. The alliance’s ability to balance the interests of upper castes through BJP, EBCs through JDU, and Dalits through LJP and HAM created a winning formula.
Welfare delivery proved more persuasive than welfare promises. The NDA transferred Rs 10,000 to women’s accounts before voting, demonstrating execution capability. The Mahagathbandhan offered competing promises of Rs 3,000 monthly payments to women, but these remained unfulfilled pledges that failed to match the impact of money already received.
Conclusion
The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections demonstrated that while caste remains important in state politics, the arithmetic has become more complex and fluid. The NDA’s victory rested on building an exceptionally broad coalition spanning upper castes, EBCs, non-Yadav OBCs, and Dalits. This alliance outmaneuvered the Mahagathbandhan’s narrower Muslim-Yadav base by appealing to diverse communities with targeted welfare, development messaging, and inclusive leadership.
Economic class intersected with caste in interesting ways. Poorer regions and lower-income groups favored the NDA, responding to direct benefit transfers and welfare schemes that provided tangible economic assistance. Women across caste and class lines voted overwhelmingly for the NDA, rewarding two decades of sustained attention to their empowerment and immediate economic support.
The results show that no single caste group dominates Bihar politics anymore. Success requires assembling multiple communities into broader coalitions and delivering governance that addresses both identity concerns and material needs. The NDA mastered this balance in 2025, while the Mahagathbandhan struggled with its traditional formula. As Bihar moves forward, this election will be remembered for how it reshaped the relationship between caste loyalty, economic interests, and electoral outcomes in one of India’s most politically significant states.
Source: Bihar Election Results & What swung the vote in Bihar polls: Caste calculus
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